It is worth looking forward to the "intelligent" wave of automobile in the next decade. Automobile will shift from electronic control and mechanical technology to the deep integration of electronics, communication, software, materials and mechanical technology, and become the forefront of cross industry innovative technology.

Chief analyst of forward-looking research of CITIC Securities, graduated from the Department of automotive engineering of Tsinghua University, and entered the research department of CITIC Securities in 2007. He is the gold medal analyst of new wealth. For the full version, please refer to the report on the future of "intelligent electric sharing" of vehicles released on August 12, 2016.

We are in an era of rapid improvement in the "slope of scientific and technological progress". New technologies and new business models are emerging one after another. With the rapid development of information technology, it has collided rapidly in the cross fields combined with traditional industries and promoted many progress. Computer, mobile phone and TV products have been redefined, and business models such as business and education are also facing challenges. Even in the traditional and heavy automobile industry, it is not difficult to feel the change. The influx of technology companies such as Tesla and Google has exacerbated the sense of crisis of traditional enterprises. In the next 10-20 years, automotive products and their industrial chain will face great changes and challenges. "Smart" will be the biggest source of change and opportunity for the automotive industry. One of the focuses of global science and technology investment will also shift from "smart phone + Mobile Internet" to "smart electric vehicle + Internet of vehicles".

"Small, light, intelligent, electric and sharing" will become the core keywords of the automotive industry in the next decade. With the gradual maturity and rationality of consumers and the increasingly significant problems of energy, transportation and safety, cars will eventually return to the essence of Intelligent Transportation: "lighter, smarter and safer" will be the future development direction. The automotive industry will gradually move from closed to open, from mechanical and electronic control technology to the deep integration of electronics, communication, software, materials and mechanical technology. The automobile industry will become a cross industry and multi-disciplinary innovation technology frontier, which will also stimulate more business model innovation.

We expect that the market share of intelligent electric vehicles is expected to exceed 50% by 2030. Among them, emerging automobile companies may account for half of the country; Traditional automobile enterprises that fail to seize the opportunity of change may become OEM factories and even withdraw from the market. In the next five years, technologies such as ADAS, intelligent driving, vehicle networking, vehicle chip, account and operating system deserve attention. Chinese auto companies and start-ups benefit from capital strength and engineer dividends, and are expected to undertake more global division of labor in the process of intelligence.

Electric: reduce the threshold of car making and start the prelude of automobile intelligent revolution. The structure and number of parts of electric vehicles are greatly reduced, and the core powertrain (such as motor, battery and even electronic control) can be purchased from a third party, thus shaking the system advantages and competitiveness of traditional vehicle enterprises. Emerging high-tech automobile enterprises have emerged rapidly and held high the selling point of "intelligence". Around 2018, smart cars with electric vehicles as the carrier may once again change consumers' cognition of cars. Power batteries still account for 50% of the current cost of electric vehicles. In the future, technologies that help to improve battery performance and electric vehicle efficiency deserve attention, such as ternary cathode materials, wet diaphragm, graphene conductive solvent, lightweight, etc.

Intelligence: the battlefield of future automobile owners is from ADAS to driverless. Adas is an important landing of intelligent vehicles. Foreign giants such as Bosch and Mainland China dominate, and there is a relatively large gap between Chinese companies. We predict that by 2020, China's ADAS market will reach 200 billion. With the rapid growth of market scale, Chinese companies may seek breakthroughs in the field of afterloading ADAS and early warning ADAS. For listed companies and Chinese start-ups, possible opportunities lie in: 1) automobile chips, 2) electronic braking mechanism, 3) hardware and algorithms of lidar and millimeter wave radar, 4) algorithms based on camera and multi-sensor fusion, etc.

Internet of vehicles: with the extension and expansion of intelligence, the rapid development of network of rear loading forces the front loading. At present, the business scope of front loading networking is relatively limited, which is common in navigation and basic services, such as general anjixing. In the future, the front loading networking may further extend to the fields of V2V and v2x, and become an extension of the sensing mechanism of ADAS system in special scenarios. Let-v and other standards deserve attention. After loading networking is growing rapidly, the industrial chain continues to extend, and gradually forms a financial insurance (UBI, etc.) and second-hand car service model based on navigation and entertainment. It is also applied to automobile loans, automobile sharing and other fields. In the future, the post loading networking based on "human" life services may gradually evolve into a front loading business with on-board operating system and o2o as the carrier.

Sharing: business model innovation based on automotive intelligence. The Internet of vehicles is the safety cornerstone of car sharing. In the future, driverless may completely change the format of car sharing. Travel sharing (with drivers) is developing rapidly, vehicle tracking and order dispatch algorithms affect customer experience, and capital forces have a great impact on business model and industrial pattern. Vehicle sharing (without driver) is based on vehicle networking positioning / tracking technology, and C2C mode (such as concave convex car rental, PP car rental, etc.) is emerging.

Capital will play a huge role. The primary market thus opened another round of science and technology investment boom; Companies with secondary market advantages are expected to integrate the industrial chain and even form a phased closed-loop ecology by virtue of their financing ability and the status of listed companies. However, it should also be noted that the road of automobile reform in the future is based on 10 years, which will inevitably be accompanied by periodic fluctuations and expected changes in the capital market. Gartner curve also suggests that the difference between capital expectation and industrial progress speed may lead to valuation fluctuations. For enterprises with advanced technologies such as smart cars, financing ability and cash flow management have also become important competitive factors in addition to technical strength.

The "smart" automobile field is worthy of long-term investment layout. It is worth looking forward to the "intelligent" wave of automobile in the next decade. Automobile will shift from electronic control and mechanical technology to the deep integration of electronics, communication, software, materials and mechanical technology, become the forefront of cross industry and multi-disciplinary innovation technology, and will stimulate more business model innovation.

1. Electric: reduce the threshold of car making and start the prelude of automobile intelligent revolution

Electric vehicles reduce the threshold of car making and subvert the core competitiveness of traditional car enterprises in the field of "powertrain". The structure and number of parts of electric vehicles are greatly reduced, and the core powertrain (such as motor, battery and even electronic control) can be purchased from a third party, thus shaking the system advantages and competitiveness of traditional vehicle enterprises. Around 2018, smart cars with electric vehicles as the carrier may once again change consumers' cognition of cars.

Electrification is the future development direction. For individual consumers, high-end electric vehicles can provide strong power and push back feeling, and low-end electric vehicles can save gasoline expenses and reduce vehicle costs. For countries, electric vehicles are convenient for centralized emission treatment and improve efficiency.

Technologies that can help improve the performance of batteries and electric vehicles deserve special attention. The battery still accounts for 50% of the current cost of electric vehicles. The problems include: 1) the increase of energy density and the decrease of cost, and 2) the increase of charging speed. The technical directions worthy of attention include: 1) ternary cathode materials; 2) Wet diaphragm; 3) Graphene conductive solvent. In addition, miniaturization + lightweight is also the key support for electrification. Carbon fiber and aluminum magnesium alloy deserve attention.

New energy opens the prelude to intelligent

In the era of electric vehicles, the original core competitiveness of vehicle enterprises has been shaken, and intelligence will become the core competitiveness. The core competitiveness of traditional car companies in the field of "powertrain" has been challenged. New entrants play the "smart" card, and cool screens and new technologies constitute a strong attraction to consumers.

Tesla opened the prelude to the automotive intelligence war. Since the beginning of booking, model 3 has received nearly 400000 orders, and consumers around the world are full of expectations for smart and cool black technology.

Electrification is the future development trend

Electric vehicles bring driving fun. The acceleration performance of electric vehicles kills traditional fuel vehicles. Models p90d can accelerate 100 kilometers for 2.8 seconds, setting a world record; BYD "Tang" and "Qin" can also easily win the fuel super run. This is determined by the operating characteristics of the motor.

Energy conservation and emission reduction is a global development theme. Considering the efficiency of the whole industrial chain from fuel mining to vehicle driven well to wheel, pure electric vehicles are equivalent to fuel vehicles, but still have lower energy consumption and emissions than gasoline vehicles.

China's oil is highly dependent on foreign countries, and electrification is the inevitable choice. According to the statistics of economic and Technological Research Institute of CNPC, China's current dependence on foreign oil is more than 60%, and more than 70% of the new oil consumption each year is automobile. In the long run, the development of fuel vehicles will exacerbate China's oil crisis, and electric vehicles will become an inevitable choice.

Policies and regulations accelerate the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. In 2012, the State Council issued the development plan for energy saving and new energy vehicle industry (2012-2020), which proposed that the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicles should be reduced to 6.9 L / 100 km in 2015 and 5.0 L / 100 km in 2020. Made in China 2025 further proposes that the fuel consumption target of passenger cars will be reduced to 4.0l/100km in 2025. Regulations and standards force passenger vehicle enterprises to develop electric vehicles.

China's new energy vehicle industry has taken off rapidly with policy support. According to statistics, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China reached 379000 in 2015, a year-on-year increase of 4 times. We believe that China's new energy vehicle industry has moved towards technological progress with policy support. In 2016, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 600000, with a penetration rate of 2%; By 2030, the sales volume of new energy will reach 25 million, with a penetration rate of 50%.

Future technological progress direction: power battery technology improvement

New energy vehicles drive relevant industrial chains. In 2020, the market scale is expected to be close to trillion, and the power battery market is expected to reach 100 billion.

Power battery is the key link of new energy vehicles. At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still less than 3%, and the high battery cost is one of the main reasons for the slow popularization. The battery cost of pure electric vehicle accounts for nearly 50% of the whole vehicle cost. The improvement of battery energy density, cost reduction and charging speed are important driving forces for the further popularization of new energy vehicles.

The energy density of ternary cathode material battery is 15% - 30% higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery, which will become the mainstream technical route of passenger car power battery. The cost of cathode materials accounts for nearly 40% of the lithium battery, which is the key factor to determine the battery performance. We expect that the market scale of ternary cathode materials is expected to exceed 30 billion in 2020. We expect that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 600000 in 2016, bringing the demand for 10gwh of ternary material battery.

Diaphragm is the key component of lithium ion battery, and wet diaphragm technology will be further popularized. Benefiting from the increased penetration of ternary and high-end lithium iron phosphate batteries, its demand is expected to exceed 1.8 billion square meters in 2020, and from the continuous gap between domestic supply and demand, the product price and profit margin are stable. It is estimated that the market scale of wet diaphragm will exceed 5 billion in 2020.

Graphene may be used in lithium ion batteries: conductive agent and electrode material. Graphene has excellent electrical and mechanical properties. At present, it is still in the research and development period, and the market space is expected to reach 500 million in 2020.

Future technological progress direction: lightweight development

Lightweight can significantly improve driving range, which is an inevitable choice for the development of electric vehicles. The weight of electric vehicle is reduced by 10%, and the corresponding range can be increased by 5.5%. When the energy density of power battery can not fully meet the requirements, lightweight has become an important means to improve driving range. Minister Wan Gang also stressed again at the 2016 China electric vehicle hundred people's conference forum that "lightweight" is one of the development directions of China's electric vehicles.

There are many lightweight materials for automobiles: high strength steel, glass fiber, aluminum alloy, magnesium alloy, carbon fiber, etc. Aluminum alloy is widely used, and carbon fiber is the future direction. The technology of aluminum alloy applied to automobile lightweight is relatively mature and has reached the mass production level: Tesla Model s adopts all aluminum body; Chery Jaguar Land Rover's all aluminum plant has been completed and put into operation; Chehejia's aluminum alloy factory has also settled in Changzhou. Carbon fiber material has attracted extensive attention because of its outstanding weight reduction performance and specific strength. However, due to its high cost, only a few mass-produced models are adopted at present, such as the first model K50 of BMW I3 and Great Wall Huaguan.

2. Intelligence: the main battlefield of future vehicles, from ADAS to driverless

Smart cars will reshape the core competitiveness of auto enterprises. In the era of gasoline engine, the powertrain composed of engine and gearbox is the core competitiveness of traditional vehicle enterprises. For large passenger car enterprises, the engine often adopts the approach of inhouse within the group; New entrants cannot buy suitable high-performance engines and can only accumulate through their own research and development. However, the R & D cycle of a good engine often takes more than ten years; Once the mass-produced engine has quality problems, it may cause great harm to the brand of automobile enterprises. Therefore, the engine has become the biggest barrier and core competitiveness of traditional vehicle enterprises.

In the era of electric vehicles, intelligence will become the core competitiveness of vehicle enterprises. The structure and number of parts of electric vehicles are greatly reduced, and the core powertrain (such as motor, battery and even electronic control) can be purchased from a third party, thus shaking the system advantages and competitiveness of traditional vehicle enterprises. New car manufacturers often take "intelligence" as their selling point and attract younger consumers with cool cutting-edge technologies. In the next 10-20 years, automotive products and their industrial chain will face great changes and challenges. Traditional car companies have to go back to battle to accelerate the development progress of intelligent applications to meet the challenges of new entrants.

Future automotive owners battlefield from ADAS to driverless. Adas is an important landing of intelligent vehicles. Foreign giants such as Bosch and Mainland China dominate, and there is a relatively large gap between Chinese companies. We predict that by 2020, China's ADAS market will reach 200 billion. With the rapid growth of market scale, Chinese companies may seek breakthroughs in the field of afterloading ADAS and early warning ADAS. For listed companies and Chinese start-ups, possible opportunities lie in: 1) automobile chips, 2) electronic braking mechanism, 3) hardware and algorithms of lidar and millimeter wave radar, 4) algorithms based on camera and multi-sensor fusion, etc.

Adas: landing carrier of intelligent driving

At present, we are in the early stage of assisted driving, which is still a long way from complete unmanned driving. SAE classifies automatic driving into grades 0 to 5. At present, L1 and L2 technologies are relatively mature, and L3 and L4 technologies are about to be mass produced (Tesla has entered the level 3 automatic driving stage in advance). Thorough L5 driverless means automatic driving of all sections, all day long, without manual intervention. The car can complete its own acceleration, braking and steering actions independently. It may take at least ten years to reach the industrialization stage.

Intelligent driving takes technology as the core driving force to create a closed-loop control of perception, decision-making and execution. At present, the core technology of ADAS is mainly in the hands of foreign companies, including Bosch, mainland China, Delphi, electric equipment, etc. China's engineers' dividends accumulated over the years reflect the emergence of a large number of entrepreneurial companies, and local engineers and returnees jointly promote technological progress. However, considering the factors such as regulations, standards, company scale and anti risk ability, the vehicle manufacturers still have concerns about the large-scale procurement of entrepreneurial ADAS products. Chinese companies may seek breakthroughs in the field of afterloading ADAS and early warning ADAS.

Intelligent driving is also a three-tier pyramid supply chain pattern. 1) Top OEM and high-tech car manufacturing enterprises; 2) Adas supplier; 3) Low level parts supplier.